As we close to October, people today have develop into even much more sensitive when it comes to the truth. In the coming elections, exactly where is the October surprise going to be? How will the truth, or the getting of it rather, have an effect on it? In this episode, Bill Stierle and Tom get appropriate down to it. They speak about every single of Joe Biden’s and Donald Trump’s camps, how they frame their messages, counteract them, and prepare for that October surprise. Plus, they also talk about the current rumor of Donald Trump getting presented the CEO position for Fox News. How will the truth be told in that scenario? Who can we trust? Bill and Tom answer these inquiries and much more.
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Truth, The October Surprise, And Donald Trump As CEO For Fox News
Bill, we’re in the middle of convention season for the Democrats and the Republicans. There appears to be a lot of polls that are indicating that Joe Biden has a lead even beyond any margins of errors, if you think polls. I know a lot of people today do not think polls. At this time of year following conventions, there’s often a convention bounce for every single candidate. Then issues returned to typical in terms of polling. There are a lot of ifs in this statement, if the voting method performs, if every single vote is counted. There is not a main surprise Joe Biden is most likely to win the election now. There’s often a danger of an October surprise. There are a lot of theories about this. Everyone is waiting for that October surprise. When is that shoe going to drop? We’ve had some in the previous.
The will need for truth and trust is so sensitive. Persons are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias, some thing I’ve voted for in the previous, rather than say, “Let me stare that issue down. Could that even be feasible? I trust this particular person, but does not this message appear like it is a tiny timely or out of spot?” As soon as you get the confused thoughts, the thoughts that is in the state of doubt, confused, skeptical, hesitant, the voter will default to the elephant brain or to the habit brain and will vote in that path. They’re waiting for that one particular tiny piece of proof that they place on their side like, “I’m going with this guy rather than this gal.” That is a tiny bit about what occurred with James Comey backtracking on, “We discovered this other set of databases. We do not know, so we’re going to investigate this other issue on Hillary’s e mail.” Following the election, “I’m sorry, we didn’t uncover something.” It was like, “You do not know what you did. What you did is generate the doubt and skepticism for the voter.”
That doubt and skepticism brought on the particular person to go like, “I’m not positive I do not want to vote for this particular person. I’m voting for this particular person for the reason that this particular person is claiming that they know the genuine answer. I’m going to take their self-confidence as truth.” Notice he does not sell truth. He sells self-confidence. He sells, “I know I’m wealthy. I know how to handle major revenue.” All of the people today about him know he does not know how to handle major revenue. He does not know how to be mindful, turn a profit, generate the worth that demands to be developed. He would compromise. He didn’t do any of these issues. The challenge when we get to the October surprise is that it is the one particular tiny grain of rice that gets moved more than to one particular side from a propaganda position that says, “Here’s the piece of proof that I will need.”
I watch advertisements and videos and issues on each sides. I watch each groups of people today place out their messaging. I’m going like, “It’s a bunch of videos that are clipped collectively about Joe Biden.” “What occurred to Joe Biden? is one particular of the most up-to-date Republican videos. The answer is he’s older than he made use of to be. This is what occurred to Joe Biden, just like your guy. You are taking years of video footage from him and going like, “These are the tiny clip snippets.” If we want to edit the worst issues we say out, this is editing the worst issues in to generate a message that is not completely correct about the particular person. It has a partial truth to it, but it is not completely correct for the reason that of the way the video has been edited.
The Democrats are guilty of the similar issue with Donald Trump. They take his greatest worst hits and place them collectively and make him appear absurdly absurd. They all do that. I do not believe the age debate is going to land pretty nicely. They’re each old. Joe Biden’s camp must be placing out a video displaying him riding a bicycle, performing some physical exercising and Donald Trump gingerly stepping down the ramp at that military graduation, but they haven’t completed that surprisingly.
It could be an October surprise. It is the grain of sand principle. It is like, “I’m moving this tiny grain of sand more than right here for the reason that I’m going to tip the scale of the ten% of the voters.” They know they struggle with the people today on something on the other side of moderate. Each sides struggle with that. We’re not going to get the people today more than right here for the reason that their bias is deeply entrenched on the other side terrible. They’re searching for proof of the other side terrible rather of going other side people today. We’re people today right here. They’re people today there. What is their point of view once again? That is a vibrant democracy is these are people today attempting to talk about tricky troubles. Let’s retain our eye on the ball right here, but they can not retain their eye on the ball for the reason that their limbic brain, their elephant brain is saying, “I’m going with what I have invested in, loyal to and what I know not necessarily to what’s correct.”
Persons are searching for stability with truth and trust. They’d rather go with a bias. Click To Tweet
That is the issue that is also fairly upsetting in this course of action of issues also. How do we take a appear at the propaganda messages and figure out exactly where the October surprise is going to be? Is it going to be a message like, “I have the vaccine, I got it from Russia. They are assisting us with this. It shows that we can operate collectively with foreign nations?” There’s a third of the people today that will instantaneously think him, no inquiries asked, “I have a connection with, I can operate with.” There’s yet another third of the people today going like, “What are you performing?” You are telling your third a message that is not in the wellbeing of America. It is also not in the wellbeing of truth for the reason that it is going to magically disappear just like all the other promises that you produced for us. It is the third and the middle that I’m scared about. It is like how substantially of them are going to go to, “Let’s take yet another possibility on this guy?” How numerous of them are going to go like, “I’m not taking yet another possibility on this guy?”
How numerous of them are going to take the bait? That is what it is, bait. It is attempting to win them back more than, “If you do not think I achieved almost everything I stated I was going to do the 1st time, this is going to be some thing you are going to want to retain me about for for the reason that without having me, you are not going to get this vaccine.” That is what he’s going to attempt to say.
“Joe Biden does not have a connection with Vladimir Putin the way I have a connection with Vladimir Putin. That is going to reduce off our probabilities of having the vaccine that we will need.” I can consider some narrative that is related to that coming out. They’re going to appear at what are the issues that we’re going to fly out week-more than-week. This is a ground game. This is a block and tackle. To use the football metaphor, “I’m operating off tackling. You have got to see if you can cease me. By the way, I’m going to retain pounding you with this message. You are weak on that side. I’m going to give yet another message and we’re going to pound on the other side with a new message.”
That would be a effective October surprise or a effective try at an October surprise. I could see Joe Biden and the Democrats counteracting that saying, “You can go get that vaccine from Russia, Donald Trump, but I’m going to operate with our American pharmaceutical corporations right here in the United States and generate the most effective.” There’s a way you could make this about the unity of America and coming in. I could nevertheless see him creating that pitch, the October surprise, “I have a vaccine and it came from Russia.”
You set up a straw man that has some truth to it concerning voter fraud. The query is how substantially of truth does it have? Do unique celebration members do issues on each sides of the aisle to attempt to exclude or not exclude votes and issues like that? Are there efforts that are getting taken spot in? That would be fairly straightforward to say yes. There are specific laws, not possessing adequate machines, having rid of machines, having rid of mailboxes. What you are performing is you are having rid of mailboxes. It is like, “How did somebody ever let that occur?” Somebody was told to choose up all these mailboxes, “You can not vote by mail for the reason that you are placing it in. That indicates you have to come to the post workplace and then we’re going to understaff them so they have no time to course of action it.”
All of a sudden, we’re dismantling the infrastructure and this is what deregulation does. It is like, “We want to take it apart.” This is the 1980s small business garage sale stuff. It is like how this business is vested like, “Let’s break it apart and sell it into pieces. We can make a lot of revenue for the reason that we ruined everybody’s lives and the companies are not viable any longer. We alluded to their pension fund.” These unique messages are that, “I’ve got this handled. Here’s how I’m handling it.” Meanwhile, what’s going on is that there is not a robust narrative about how to operate as a nation to reside to the worth of one particular particular person, one particular vote. Let’s suppose one particular of an October surprise could be, “I am going to eradicate the issue that I’ve been speaking most about. I’m going to figure out how to deal. I have the answer. I have terrific people today. I have terrific technologies. I’m going to resolve the voter fraud dilemma. Is there a dilemma or is it a dilemma dilemma? How major is it? What scale does it match?”
The reality that perhaps there is not substantially of a dilemma would make it an straightforward dilemma for him to resolve. If he labels it and owns it that he solved it, that is terrific. It hurts him if he does not win the election if he solved voter fraud. If he wins the election legitimately, then he claims that Monday morning quarterback hero position of possessing solved it. If he loses, then he labels the method as tainted and broken. The Democrats killed it and we can not trust it. He demands to be capable to cast doubt on the voter method if he loses.
“What is my winning narrative so that I am displaying self-confidence and strength?” That self-confidence and strength is the piece of rice I retain moving across. Just about every message that he does is not about truth. It is about moving the rice more than to the other side of the scale. Just about every time we’re on this, you take the bait. You go, “Yeah, but how about the reality?” I’m like, “We’re not moving information right here. It does not matter.” You and I can regularly notice the message is the rice that is moved onto one particular side of the scale. The vote and the race tighten for the reason that it is the particular person moving the rice messages more than to the variety of ability to tilt the person’s belief structure in the path they want. That becomes intriguing or vibrant.
The message moves some people today of that middle third more than to his camp to vote for him. The information do not pull them back.
All the voter demands to do to get their vote is to acknowledge one particular issue that political leader did for them. Even if they did ten issues that had been against them, they will anchor on the one particular issue. It is vital when you take a appear at communication, beliefs and biases is that if we appear at the one particular issue that tends to make a major distinction, it is what precious to me as a particular person, as a human getting. What will need is that meeting of mine? It meets my will need for integrity or truth or trust, or it meets my will need for help or fairness. If all I got to do is place 1 or two of these issues and say, “At least he did this,” it is the similar issue with all the unique candidates. We’re getting pretty agnostic right here. It is like this particular person is voting towards the issue that it appears like this particular person is confident about this issue. Meanwhile, there may well be complete wreckage that a issue has brought on. Even to the particular person that believes there is not a wreckage piece to it. They’re not necessarily seeing the pros and cons.
The particular person that is creating the selection with the self-confidence, “I produced my most effective work. This is what I did for us. This is why we’re improved off.” That is why it does not matter what celebration of what president goes out and does a speaking tour. There will be lots of people today in the stadium when the stadiums open up. There are lots of people today there to hear them speak for the reason that they’re listening for the reassuring and reinforcing of the message that they voted for, that they’re loyal to in the previous. It is pretty intriguing and difficult. Could the October surprise be that Joe Biden comes on stage and he introduces all the former presidents and invites them to say a word to all the former presidents, all of them come up and say some thing? That requires that middle third. It does not move the other third. The 35% is going to keep exactly where it is. The 33% stays exactly where it is. It requires that middle third and goes, “Wait a minute.” The ones that are closer to the other side, that brings it into the 49th percentile. It is like how substantially does it creep more than to the other side and to see what it appears like?
There’s yet another possible October surprise that has a unique effect, not a traditional one particular. We’re hearing that Fox News has behind the scenes produced an supply to Donald Trump to be the CEO of Fox News. Here’s the reality. We all know Donald Trump didn’t anticipate to be president in the 1st spot. He’s pretty frustrated with the everyday briefings and getting a leader. He desires it completed his way. He hasn’t grown into the job. I do not believe he desires to be there. If he gets to be the arbiter of what is fake news and what’s genuine news in his thoughts, he would in all probability appreciate that a complete lot much more. He’d be in the limelight all the time once again, but in a way that he can handle it.
He buys out Rupert Murdoch. He becomes the CEO of Fox. He provides these messages for the way he would like the truth to be told, the way he would like the messages to be crafted and moved. He’s going to keep with the messages that operate. He is a tester and an evaluator of his performances. He watches his stuff and sees what lands, what does not land, what gets applause, what does not get applause, what moves, what does not move, how can I reinforce this, then he moves to the subsequent message. Just about every human getting communicates like they’re throwing spaghetti on the wall. You and I are throwing spaghetti on the wall in a unique way. We like to meet the will need for integrity or trust and bring our most effective belief structures forward. A lot of occasions, we do not have all the complete facts and unique pieces of facts show up.
Just about every human getting demands an providing. Just about every human getting demands a spot to transition. Click To Tweet
Donald Trump’s subsequent job, is it going to be the CEO of Fox News or does he go back to the life that he was? I’m not positive if it is going to be really as thrilling as it was as soon as was in that position. The people today calling him to do issues that are as engaged as The Apprentice or some of these other issues in the future. There are possibilities, but every single human getting demands an off-ramp. Just about every human getting demands a spot to transition, “Here’s my identity right here and here’s my identity more than right here.” Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton are in the similar spot this way. They’re either transitioning into this or they’re transitioning more than there. Hillary Clinton didn’t believe that for 4 years, she would be punching the clock at residence getting a grandma. She didn’t believe that was going to be her job. She knew the other job was going to be her job for the reason that that was her profession. That was what she constructed her resume about all the unique issues she did in these resume spots, a Senator in New York, Secretary of State.
When you believe about it, the Fox News job supply for Donald Trump tends to make a lot of sense if you are him. The Coronavirus is a curveball he got thrown that he by no means anticipated possessing to deal with. It took away all the wind in his sails of the robust economy. All these issues that he would be riding substantially much more quickly to re-election. I could see him pretty quickly saying, “That’s okay. Even even though the election was rigged and I lost it, I do not want it anyway. I’m going to go on and make a distinction right here at Fox News.” I really like to see a person in the press corps asked him about the job supply. Although he will not confirm it, you know that his ego can not keep away from the light. He’s in all probability going to say, “They must want me to be CEO. Everyone is saying I would be terrific at it.” It will meet his will need for self-worth so substantially. It would be terrific if a person in the press corps asked him that query to confirm, “Is it correct that you had been presented the CEO position at Fox News?”
Due to the fact of the connection, “You have a robust connection with all the unique people today more than there. You have met with them, interviewed them, helped them with their careers. Here’s the subsequent step for you. Are you going to take that step if for some explanation you do not win the election? For what ever explanation, will you take that job?” The query is that will he either say, “No, that is a rumor. I’m staying exactly where I am,” or will his self-worth, respect and his ego say, “Yeah. I could quickly do that job. I’m a pretty sensible guy. I can do these sorts of issues.”
It would be an intriguing off-ramp for him to take language-sensible for the reason that if he does not want to be there, he now has his out. He has his respectful step. Even if he does not get it, he nevertheless has his, “I’m going to fight the battle of fake news. The way to fight the battle fake news is to be in charge of genuine news. These are the genuine news people today. I’m going to be on their side. They like me and they want me to be there with them. These are my colleagues. They all like me more than there. I may well as nicely operate with people today I like and present leadership, wisdom, speaking points to them and give them guidance on what the genuine news is.” It would be an intriguing shift to take spot. The press corps asking that query would be an vital query for the reason that it is like, “What are you going to do following? The polls are like this and you are speaking about voter fraud like this. If you do not win, does this job supply look intriguing to you?” Let’s see if that is the way he can retain his will need for respect and make his transition in a way that is graceful.
If a particular person does not have a respectful transition to go to, they have a tendency to get stuck on hanging on to issues. That tends not to go so nicely for the reason that all issues will need to transition. All issues will need to adjust hands. It is like what a distinction. This is one particular way to generate some ease and generate some chance for the person’s message. We do have a messaging propaganda dilemma. Any message that comes out has to be faced and dealt with. Even a no response is solely a yes response. “No, I haven’t heard something about that.” All of a sudden, it is like, “Would you be interested?” His answer is, “I am committed to getting the president of the United States.” I can by no means consider him saying that.
I can not consider him saying that either for the reason that I do not believe his heart is there. He would substantially rather be on Television at Fox News or be in charge of it and enable guide that ship. He would like that a complete lot much more. I do not believe he’s disciplined adequate to deny it, not speak about it and not speculate. He often says, “We’ll see what occurs.” He often injects that uncertainty.
He does, and that tends to make it much more enticing. It tends to make it much more vital rather of the straight turn down. A turndown, there’s a double-edged sword to it. It meets a will need for truth, but it also dampens or eliminates dopamine. It is the popular John McCain and the lady coming on the issue that says, “He’s a Muslim.” He’s like, “No, he’s not.” He’s meeting the will need for truth, but it is dampening the belief structure that a person else’s faith, the enthusiasm that John McCain was going to save us from a Muslim.
If John McCain had not denied it and let it hang out there, not embraced it necessarily or perpetuated, he may well have won that election. That was a major moment in that election. That was a surprise of regrettably McCain’s personal creating that didn’t enable him. I respect him for the reason that he had integrity. I respect him as an person. I want he had been president rather of Donald Trump. These are effective moments in an election. If this story gets the light of day and somebody does asks President Donald Trump or they do not ask him, somebody is going to will need to ask Fox News leadership, “Is there any truth to it?” They’re going to have to make some statements right here at some point.
They’re going to will need to make a statement, “No, we didn’t supply him something. There was no supply discussion.” Meanwhile, we do not know if there’s any supply discussion going on. That is exactly where the uncertainty of the discussion goes on. These are the issues that begin in our component of the grain of rice narrative about leadership is not committed. As soon as we get a sense that leadership is not committed, then all of a sudden, “Leadership is not committed,” can be an open narrative. It will be intriguing. This is a communication show. Messaging about how specific messages have an effect on our physiology and permit us to make choices has some predictability to it. The uncertainty has to do with that people today do not know how to use the predictability. It is like, “Is this an integrity situation or is this a fairness situation?” These two issues can be pretty unique. It appears like we got some stuff to do right here about this.
It will be pretty intriguing as we go by way of September and into October to see what surprises do happen. As they do at the time, we’re going to want to speak about these in a pretty timely manner pretty swiftly and have some discussions about them, how the messages had been place out and then how you may well counteract that message if you could or what the effect is. That will be pretty intriguing to watch.
It will be the flooding of messaging to then the confusion exactly where truth is to be discovered. That is placing a lot of grains of rice about and not positive which one particular is the one particular that you will need. Exactly where is that point of information or facts? How can we generate a tiny bit of wisdom or a tiny bit of insight out of it? That is a substantial component of the equation also. Extra to come on this, Tom. I’m searching forward to the subsequent issue. We’ll have a lot of issues to speak about subsequent time even from the spot of the wrap up of the Democratic convention. We can take a appear at as who got messages of truth to stick and who didn’t. There are some messages that did stick, some didn’t and some had been taking out of context. We can take a appear at that also. That is valuable.
Perhaps also to appear at some of the rebuttals to some of the messages for the reason that what we’ve observed is the president is not staying away from commenting on these issues. He’s employing his Twitter platform to attempt to rebut or make his personal counter-message stick. We must take a peek at that also.
That enables us to enable to see exactly where the dopamine is moving and exactly where the loyalty shifts and how a person’s bias gets activated and then captured. Extra to come. Tom, thanks a lot.